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DTN Early Word Opening Livestock       09/23 06:01
   Cattle Futures Seem Set for Mixed Opening

   Look for the cattle complex to open on a mixed basis tied to a combination
of residual selling and pre cash/Cattle on Feed report short-covering. Lean hog
futures should open moderately lower, pressured by bearish late-week

By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

Cattle: Steady        Futures: Mixed      Live Equiv $127.55  + .01*
Hogs:  Steady-$1 LR   Futures: 25-50 LR   Lean Equiv $ 83.31  -1.45**

* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue


   The cash cattle trade is quickly moving toward "now or never." Packers are
short bought with decent margins. Yet Thursday's sharp break in futures seemed
to take a chunk out of feedlot leverage in terms of a much stronger basis. With
spot October live closing Thursday nearly $3 under last week's cash, it may be
much more difficult for feedlot managers to hold for higher asking prices. A
sudden recovery in the board could help, but that could be a tough call. At any
rate, look for significant trade volume to surface sometime between late
morning and late afternoon. The Sept. 1 Cattle on Feed report is set to be
released Friday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. (CT). Average guesses expect the
following: on feed, up 1%; placed in August, up 13%; marketed in August, up
17%. Live and feeder futures should open on a mixed basis as traders position
ahead of cash and on feed news.
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