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DTN Early Word Opening Livestock       09/23 06:01
   Cattle Futures Seem Set for Mixed Opening

   Look for the cattle complex to open on a mixed basis tied to a combination
of residual selling and pre cash/Cattle on Feed report short-covering. Lean hog
futures should open moderately lower, pressured by bearish late-week
fundamentals.

By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst




Cattle: Steady        Futures: Mixed      Live Equiv $127.55  + .01*
Hogs:  Steady-$1 LR   Futures: 25-50 LR   Lean Equiv $ 83.31  -1.45**

* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The cash cattle trade is quickly moving toward "now or never." Packers are
short bought with decent margins. Yet Thursday's sharp break in futures seemed
to take a chunk out of feedlot leverage in terms of a much stronger basis. With
spot October live closing Thursday nearly $3 under last week's cash, it may be
much more difficult for feedlot managers to hold for higher asking prices. A
sudden recovery in the board could help, but that could be a tough call. At any
rate, look for significant trade volume to surface sometime between late
morning and late afternoon. The Sept. 1 Cattle on Feed report is set to be
released Friday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. (CT). Average guesses expect the
following: on feed, up 1%; placed in August, up 13%; marketed in August, up
17%. Live and feeder futures should open on a mixed basis as traders position
ahead of cash and on feed news.
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