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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/22 11:18

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Grain trade is making new lows with continued selling pressure due to good 
early yields and chart selling.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 60. The interest 
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 11 higher. Energies are mixed with 
crude down $0.90. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold 
down $1. 


   Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents lower with new lows being made at midday. 
Momentum is flat to lower. Basis should see additional pressure this week as 
more bushels become available. Ethanol margins remain good but have backed a 
bit away from the recent highs. The weekly export inspections were strong at 
1.019 million metric tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected to keep 
conditions mostly steady, with maturity lagging behind the five-year average, 
but possibly narrowing the gap from the prior week with warmer weather at the 
end of last week. On the December contract resistance is now at the previous 
low and previously noted support level at $3.35 3/4. Noted Support is $3.25 
then $3.11.  


   Soybean trade is 19 to 23 cents lower at midday with meal $5 to $6 lower and 
oil 65 to 75 points lower. Trade saw pressure from the open of the Sunday night 
trade and has made new lows. Basis will continue to slide as more bushels 
become available in the near term. The weekly export inspections were better at 
467,684 metric tons as Delta beans start flowing out of the gulf. The weekly 
crop progress report may show a slightly decline in conditions due to the frost 
damage last week, but will likely remain close to steady, while maturity will 
likely run a shade behind average. On the chart, $9.28 stands as support after 
$9.50 fell overnight. This year the significance of the September 30th stocks 
report is muted due to the expectations of a huge record 2014 crop. Long 
liquidation and news of good yields has the market bears in control.    


   Wheat trade is 1 to 6 cents lower across the three exchanges at midday with 
pressure spilling over from the row crops and the firming dollar. Spread trade 
has firmed this morning on renewed tensions in the Ukraine, and light 
commercial buying. The Southern Plains look to have decent weather for field 
work and planting in the near term. The weekly export inspections were decent 
at 506,612 metric tons. The weekly progress report is expected to show spring 
wheat harvest near completion, and winter wheat planting nearing the 25% mark. 
Wheat is oversold on the charts with limited chart support to mention since we 
are at our lows. First resistance on the Kansas City December contract is at 
the 10-day moving average at $5.88. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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