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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/15 11:28

   Soybeans Strongly Higher at Midday

   Soybeans are strong, wheat firm and corn lower at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 9. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 4 higher. Energies are 
mixed with crude down $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs stronger. 
Precious metals are lower with gold down $26. 


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 lower at midday with trade staying range bound overall. 
The weekly progress report listed the corn planting at 3% complete this 
afternoon versus the 6% average. Limited progress should be seen this week. 
Basis has stayed fairly sideways in the near term. Ethanol margins are still 
OK, with blender margins improving. Chart support is the 20-day moving average 
at $4.95 on the May contract and $4.94 1/2 on the December. Chart resistance is 
the highs from last Wednesday at $5.19 on the May and $5.13 on the December 
contract. Remember this is a short four-day week with the markets closed for 
Good Friday. Planting weather and the forecasts next week are a bigger deal, so 
volatile position squaring ahead of the long spring/Easter weekend should keep 
trade active this week.


   Soybean trade is 14 to 19 higher at midday, with meal $5 to $7 higher, and 
oil 50 to 60 points higher. The May/July spread has stabilized this morning at 
the narrowest levels in a while. Cooler wet planting weather should be negative 
for beans if the planting weather allows limited activity this month. The NOPA 
March crush report is this morning, expectations are for it to be around 
145-146 million bushels. On the May chart support is $14.57, which is the 
20-day with further support at $14.76, the 10-day, and then the $15.12 contract 
high printed on Wednesday. No weekly soybean progress numbers were seen today 
or are expected until two weeks from now.


   Wheat trade is flat to 3 higher across the three contracts at midday with 
the cold snap adding support despite the full extent of the damage not being 
realized for seven to 10 days. The weather forecast remains troubling for the 
Southern Plains in the near term, with relief still in the 11-15-day forecast. 
Important chart support is at the $6.57 200-day moving average on the May 
Chicago and $7.06 on the May Kansas City. Chart resistance are the 20-day 
moving averages, the Kansas City May 20-day is $7.56 and Chicago is $6.87. If 
trade can consolidate gains today, it should trigger some additional buying. On 
the weekly report the winter wheat crop ratings slipped 1 percentage point to 
34% good to excellent which is 2 percentage points worse than a year ago. This 
should support trade tonight. Spring wheat plantings were listed at 6%, which 
is ahead of normal. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.   

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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