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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/25 11:10

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Early overnight gains give way to broad selling at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 110 points. 
The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is narrowly mixed. 
Energies are firmer with crude up 1.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold down $4.00.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with cooler forecasts and near 
term rain offsetting the decline in weekly crop conditions. Corn pollination 
will continue with cooler temperatures after the next couple of days but rain 
coverage remains less than ideal for the much western belt with signs of 
improved coverage for Nebraska and Iowa Tuesday and Wednesday. There are also 
spots of excessive moisture in areas of the east. The weekly crop progress 
report showed corn ratings down 2 percentage points to 62% good to excellent, 
and 12% poor to very poor. Progress was listed at 67% silking, 9% behind last 
year, and 2 percentage points behind average, and 8% in the dough, 4 percentage 
points behind last year, and 5 percentage points behind average. Ethanol 
margins are improved this morning with the cheaper corn and firmer energy 
complex. On the December chart support is at the July low of $3.81 3/4 with 
resistance at the 100-day at $3.90 which we closed just above yesterday then 
the 20-day at $3.94. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 3 to 7 cents lower at midday, well off the overnight highs 
after the initial snap higher. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil 15 to 25 
higher. Cooler temperatures with some moisture was viewed as less threatening 
for the coming weeks. We still have six important weeks of weather ahead for 
beans. The western belt will likely see the most stress going into August with 
rains limited after tomorrow. The weekly crop progress report had conditions 
down 4 percentage points to 57% good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor 
with 69% blooming, 5 percentage points behind last year, and 2 percentage 
points ahead of average, with 29% setting pods, 4 percentage points behind last 
year, and 2 percentage points ahead of average. On the November chart support 
is at the 20-day at 9.94 with resistance at the 10-day at 10.13.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 8 to 25 cents lower at midday with Minneapolis trade leading 
the way lower again as the ongoing correction continues. The spread trade 
remains active with Minneapolis still $2.50 over Chicago. The September spread 
was trading around $1 over in early May, then traded to nearly $3 over on July 
5. Most world export business remains focused on the Black Sea area as harvest 
begins to progress there, with the dollar around the yearly lows there is hope 
for export U.S. improvement but world supplies remain ample. The Spring wheat 
tour is in the better areas of the eastern growing area today. The weekly crop 
progress had winter wheat 84% harvested 4 percentage points ahead of average, 
spring wheat down 1 percentage point at 33% good to excellent, and 41% poor to 
very poor with 96% headed, 2 percentage points ahead of average. On the 
December Kansas City contract support is the 100-day at $4.94. Resistance is at 
the 50-day at $5.06 then the 10-day at $5.31.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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