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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/27 11:33

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Soybeans lead trade higher across the board at midday with warmer forecasts 
providing support.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 6 points. 
The interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 13 points 
higher. Energies are mixed with crude 0.80 lower. Livestock trade has hogs 
lower and cattle and feeders higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold $6.50 


   Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade finding support from 
the stronger soybean trade this morning. The weekly ethanol production report 
showed production down 3.0% down last week from record levels, stocks were 3.6% 
lower, and gasoline demand was 0.12% higher, as producer margins remain strong 
and blender margins remain poor. Rains look to work through much of the belt 
again, helping to push grain fill and keep the trade talking about very strong 
yields. Corn prices in Brazil remain at record levels, limiting exports and 
likely expanding acres this winter. The USDA announced export sales of 247,912 
metric tons to unknown, split between old and new crop. On the December 
contract support is the contract low at $3.33 1/4. Resistance is the 10-day 
moving average at $3.48; then the 20-day at $3.55.  


   Soybean trade is 15 to 19 cents higher at midday with trade finding buying 
on concerns about the extended forecast being more stressful for soybeans, 
along with trade being a bit oversold coming into the week. Meal is $6 to $7 
higher overnight, and oil is flat to 10 points higher. The weather forecast is 
still showing hints of a warmer and drier August, which will keep some support 
under the trade, while near-term rains could trigger short term selling. Export 
business should continue to favor the U.S. with 131,000 metric tons announced 
as sold to China for new crop. On the November soybean chart support is at the 
$9.63 three-month recent low, then the 200-day moving average at 9.53, with 
resistance at the 10-day moving average at $10.15. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents higher across the three cotnracts at midday due 
to spillover support from the row crops. The heavy world and domestic supplies 
continue to limit upside in wheat with concerns about flour recalls yesterday. 
Production estimates continue to slide out of continental Europe while Russian 
production remains strong. Some buying wheat versus selling bean spreading 
supported wheat the past week, but the fear of hot August weather appears to 
have quickly scared some spreaders out of position. This was not a surprise and 
spring wheat should stay supported versus winter wheat contracts. On the Kansas 
City December chart support is the 10-day and 20-day moving averages around 
$4.40 which we are testing at midday, with the 50-day resistance at 4.74. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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