DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/24 11:17
Wheat Higher at Midday
Wheat trade is sharply higher at midday, row crops are flat.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 30. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 7 lower. Energies are
mixed with crude up 0.50. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher
with gold up $4.
Corn trade is flat to 2 higher at midday with some light buying following
the firm close yesterday. Outside markets are neutral to lightly supportive
this morning. Ethanol margins have slipped with the firmer trade in corn, but
blender margins have improved coming into spring. Corn basis has remained
fairly stable but most expect it to firm with more farmers getting into the
field, with additional strength on board weakness. On the chart, May corn is
back above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages which are now support, they
are both at $4.99. The weekly export sales are within expectations at 618,900
metric tons of old crop, and 382,900 of new crop. Planters are rolling this
week, so we look for a good jump in the planting number on Monday. But if the
rains keep coming and get a little bigger, the market should keep some premium
in play near term.
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed in quiet trade at midday. Meal is flat to $1
higher and oil is 5-15 points lower. Spread trade is mixed but generally firmer
at midday. If the slide resumes, it should help November find additional
buying. November did close above the 10-day yesterday, at $12.26 and another
close above that area will be supportive, while May is below the 10-day and
20-day moving averages at $14.87, and $14.77. This was the first close below
the 20-day since March 24th, so a second daily close could trigger some bigger
selling. Trade the next two days should be interesting with the two opposite
chart items in play. Stats Canada pegged canola at 19.7 million acres, which
was lower than expected. The weekly export sales were 800 metric tons of old
crop, 118,200 of new crop, 186,600 of meal, and 5,700 of soyoil, which was
Wheat trade is 14 to 18 higher across the three exchanges at midday with
support from the Ukraine, mixed rains domestically, and the pending Kansas
wheat tour. The weather forecast continues to be challenging for much of the
western wheat belt. Stats Canada wheat planting intentions beat expectations by
500,000 at 24.9 million acres, but is down 1 million from last year. The poor
rail issues resulted in too poor of prices for the 2013 crop. Wheat export
sales were okay at 339,100 of old crop and 271,100 of new crop. The 200-day
moving averages are at $7.06 on the May Kansas City and $6.57 on the May
Chicago and are the key support.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN offers additional daily information available free through DTN Snapshot – sign up