DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/28 10:50
Corn, Soybeans Higher at Midday
Trade is higher at midday led by soybeans.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 140 points.
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 33 points lower.
Energies are higher with crude up $0.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious
metals are mixed with gold down $8.20.
Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade following the lead of
soybeans, with outside markets helping to back trade off the 13 cents higher
move seen overnight. The forecast remains cool over the next week with limited
rain for the center of the belt with heat potentially returning the second
week. Ethanol margins are fairly steady this morning with blender margins still
under pressure from firmer ethanol futures. The weekly progress and conditions
report left good to excellent unchanged at 75%, and poor to very poor 1% higher
at 5%, with silking at 6% vs. 3% last year and 5% on average. Conditions did
decline in some of the key production states like Illinois. On the December
chart support is at the $3.90 3/4 100-day then the $3.82 1/2 low printed
Friday. Resistance is the 200-day moving at $3.96, which we have edged above
this morning, with the 50-day at $4.06 above that.
Soybean trade is 14 to 17 cents higher at midday with strong demand,
especially from China helping to underpin trade. Meal is $6 to $7 higher, and
oil is flat to 10 points higher. The market is expecting an acreage increase on
the June 30th Planting Intentions report which should help to keep trade
defensive ahead of the report to some degree, although strong demand will help
lead the front months. Weather looks to bring rain to double crop areas while
other areas look to struggle again this week, with heat returning in the
extended forecast. The weekly conditions and progress report had good to
excellent 72% down 1%, and poor to very poor unchanged at 5%, with blooming at
9% vs. 7% last year and on average. On the November soybean chart support is at
the 50-day at $10.63, resistance is at the 20-day at 11.20, which we are above
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with harvest pressure helping to
pull trade back from the overnight highs. Rains should have slowed harvest in
areas of Kansas, but overall progress remains pretty good as they cross the
halfway point with some yields pushing triple digits even on dryland in North
Central Kansas. Growing concerns about crop conditions are picking up in the
Red River Valley with conditions declining sharply the last two weeks. The
weekly crop progress report had winter wheat at 62% good to excellent, 8% poor
to very poor, up 1 percentage point with harvest at 45%, 4% above average,
while spring wheat was 4% lower at 72% good to excellent and 5% poor to very
poor with 56% headed vs. 27% on average. On the July KC chart the 10-day and
lowest major moving average is resistance at $4.36 with support at the $4.11
fresh contract low.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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