DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/27 11:37
All Grains Higher at Midday
Firm midday trade has most contracts near the daily highs; a weak dollar and
short profit taking are noted for strength.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are narrowly mixed. The interest rate products
are weak. The dollar index is 84 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude
up 80. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are mixed.
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher at midday due to outside market support
with the dollar and crude both higher. After the sell off last week many
traders have noted the oversold conditions bringing in short profit taking at
midday. The USDA reports on Friday also have traders wanting to go to the
sidelines and wait for the numbers. The average trade guess for the June USDA
Planting Intentions number is 89.82 million acres versus 89.996 in March and
94.004 a year ago. The range of estimates is 89-90.6. The June 1 Quarterly
Grain stocks are expected to be at 5.16 billion bushels versus 4.711 billion a
year ago. The weekly crop progress report showed conditions unchanged at 67%
good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor when the market was expecting a
light bump up; this is also noted supporting trade. July corn futures have
support at the new low printed Friday at $3.56 with resistance at the $3.70
10-day moving average.
Soybean trade is 8 cents higher at midday and we have been up a dime, meal
is $1 higher and soybean oil s up 55 points. The weekly crop progress had
conditions unchanged at 66% good to excellent when the trade was looking for a
1-3% increase. This along with friendly outside markets has beans trying to
rally today. The USDA June Planting Intentions expectations are limiting upside
with the average trade guess at 89.95 million acres versus 89.5 million on the
March report and up from 83.4 million a year ago. This would be the first-year
soybean acreage surpasses corn and frankly the first year they have been close
to each other. The June 1 stocks are expected to be at 981 million bushels
versus 872 a year ago. July beans have major support at the $9.00 14-month low
made last week, with the 10-day and 20-day at $9.22-$9.24 first resistance
Wheat trade is around a nickel higher on the winter wheat contracts and up
15 on Minneapolis; new highs for the move have been scored on Minneapolis. The
weak dollar and spillover support from the row crops are helping us see the
wheat strength. The average trade guess for the all wheat planted number is at
46.045 million acres versus 46.059 on the March report. The June 1 Quarterly
Wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.154 billion versus 976 billion a year ago.
So no bullish or bearish surprises are expected on Friday. The spring wheat
acreage estimate is at 11.234 versus 11.308 on the March report; the spring
wheat acreage number is one area the market will be watching closely. Spring
wheat was only rated 40% good to excellent on the weekly report yesterday
afternoon. On the July Kansas City contract support is the 100-day at $4.52
with resistance the 10-day at $4.65.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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