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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/21 11:25

   Grains Trending Lower at Midday

   Trade is mildly lower at midday with momentum flat.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 70 points. 
The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 44 points higher. 
Energies are mixed with crude up 1.00. Livestock trade is higher. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold down 1.90.  


   Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower at midday with flat momentum; the market 
was up a few cents overnight and down 2 cents this morning. Ethanol margins 
remain poor but spring driving season continues to grow closer giving some 
optimism.  Ethanol is down a penny at midday. Double-crop planting in Brazil 
will continue to expand in coming days. The weekly export inspections were good 
at 1.152 million metric tons, with daily announcements of sales of 269,296 
metric tons to Japan, and 111,200 to unknown on the daily wire. The USDA 
outlook forum this week will shine more light on expected 2017 acre figures. 
Support is at the $3.68 20-day and $3.67 200-day which we are testing this 
morning, with resistance now at the $3.72 10-day followed by the $3.80 high. 


   Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade giving back the 
overnight strength pretty quickly during the day session with harvest pressure 
building out of Brazil. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points lower 
making fresh lows again this morning. Crop size expectations remain strong for 
Brazil with some concerns about harvest wetness lingering, but the strong 
Brazilian real remains the bigger story for export competition. The weekly 
export inspections remain solid at 1.076 million metric tons. On the March 
soybean chart support is now at the $10.18 200-day and resistance at the $10.44 
20-day, with trade falling below the 50-day at $10.35. 


   Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents lower across the three contracts at midday after 
early mixed trade. The firmer dollar will limit upside, but it remains overall 
in the lower side of the post-election range. The warm stretch will continue to 
raise concerns about breaking dormancy early, with the more extended forecast 
showing potentially for a cold snap into early March for the western belt with 
moisture angled north for now. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas caught some rains 
over the week. The weekly export inspections were better at 585,252 metric 
tons, and 138,650 metric tons sold to unknown on the daily wire. On the March 
Kansas City contract support is at the $4.50 200-day. Resistance is at the 
seven-month high at $4.74 1/2 which was printed on Thursday with the 10-day at 
$4.56 just above that. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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