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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/28 11:12

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower at midday, led by wheat.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow 60 points higher. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 12 points lower. Energies 
are mixed with crude down 0.20. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are 
mixed with gold down $1.10.  


   Corn is flat to 2 cents lower in quiet trade at midday with trade looking to 
hold the higher end of the range into the weekend to provide another positive 
close. Ethanol production margins remain good; blender margins need improvement 
coming forward to absorb the strong production with crude sliding back below 
$50 a barrel. Corn basis is still seeing some pressure in many areas as country 
elevators continue to fill up as harvest begins to wind down. The spread trade 
has been slightly firmer this morning indicating that nearby demand remains 
strong. On the December contract support is at the $3.47 20-day then the 50-day 
at $3.38 which is the lowest major moving average. Resistance is up at the 
$3.59 1/4 3-month high then the $3.61 100-day. We have come within a penny of 
the high this week. Expect buy stops above there, and if we slip back below 
$3.50 over the next few days the trade may be talking about a double top. 


   Soybean trade is narrowly mixed overnight with trade looking to consolidate 
further in the upper end of the range going into the weekend. Meal is $2 to $3 
lower and bean oil is 40 to 50 points lower. Harvest pressure is limiting 
upside but should fade as we hit the homestretch for soybeans with basis 
pressure increasing as harvest gets ahead of train capacity in some areas due 
to the continued larger-than-expected yield reports. Brazilian weather has 
improved for good planting progresses and early crop development, but 
forecasters have mixed ideas moving forward with the extended forecast moving 
drier. On the November soybean chart support is at the 10-day at $9.91, then 
the 200-day at $9.81. Resistance is the 100-day up at $10.23 after the 
continued positive finishes. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 6 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with 
trade continuing to struggle to hold strength with supplies weighing on the 
market and a lack of positive spillover trade from the row crops this morning. 
The dollar remains near multi-month highs with light weakness at midday as 
trade looks to back away from the upper end of the range. Weather concerns may 
build with the reduced acreage in the U.S., and dry weather in many of the 
winter wheat areas so far. On the Kansas City  December chart support is at the 
20-day at $4.13, with $3.97 below there. The 2 month high at $4.28 1/4 is key 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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