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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/26 11:28

   Soybeans Leading Grains Lower at Midday

   Grain trade is mostly lower, September beans again very active.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 55. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 5 higher. Energies are flat. 
Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $5. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is 4 to 6 lower in slow midday action; we remain above the 
contract lows. Outside markets are neutral to slightly friendly but soybean 
action is pulling corn lower along with a bias still toward a big crop that may 
be getting bigger. Ethanol margins remain strong in the near term, with basis 
staying firm. The USDA announced 120,000 metric tons of corn sold to Colombia, 
and 113,673 to Costa Rica. The weekly crop progress report rated corn 73% good 
to excellent, up 1 percentage point on the week, with 7% poor to very poor. 
This has yield ideas tilting up slightly. Corn was 83% in the dough vs. 78% on 
average, and 35% dented vs. 43% on average. On the December chart, the 10-day 
and 20-day moving averages are at $3.70 are now resistance with $3.81 after 
that. Support is at the $3.58 low printed on the August monthly report day. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 41 lower on September to 8 lower on November; November 
printed a new low at $10.20. Meal is down $2 to $4 and bean oil is mixed. The 
trend remains down and rain has crop ideas good to better. Processor margins 
and interest remain strong but longs are getting out of September this week. 
The weather forecast remains good for the developing crop in the near term. The 
weekly progress report showed conditions down 1 percentage point at 70% good to 
excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, with 90% of the plant setting pods vs. 89% 
on average. The rains this week will be good for later-group beans, so some 
believe ratings could bump back up a percent next week. November soybean chart 
support remains at the $10.20 low printed this morning and resistance is at the 
10-day at $10.43, then the 20-day at $10.59. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 6 to 9 lower at midday with spillover pressure from the row 
crops. The dollar is back to up on the day so that continues to work against US 
exports and domestic wheat prices. Quality concerns for the higher protein 
classes will linger with rains in the US slowing spring wheat harvest, after a 
wet harvest in Europe reduced quality there. Trade will be looking for 
commercials standing for delivery in the next week on Minneapolis and Kansas 
City contracts. The Ukrainian situation will require further monitoring for 
export disruption but was quieter to start the week. On the weekly crop 
progress and condition report spring wheat conditions were 2 percentage points 
lower at 66% good to excellent, and harvest was 27% complete vs. 49% on 
average. On the chart, September Kansas City wheat moved below support at the 
10-day moving average at $6.19 so the next level to mention is the $6.02 lower 
printed two weeks ago. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com. 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


(CZ)

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