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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/16 11:47

   Grains Trending Lower at Midday

   Trade is lightly lower across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market is higher this morning with the Dow up 45 points. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 8 higher. Energies are 
higher with crude up $0.70. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are higher with gold up $1.00.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday with trade working above $3.50 with 
harvest expected to expand this week as things dry out. Ethanol margins are 
stable with the seasonal usage expected to work lower. Weekly crop progress is 
expected to show maturity and harvest lagging with export inspections 
disappointing at 322,672 metric tons. Basis should see harvest pressure, while 
carry remains at wide levels. On the December chart support is at the 20-day at 
$3.50 with the contract low at $3.42 below that, with resistance the 50-day at 
$3.57.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 3 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from 
the $10.00 area as harvest expands. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and oil is 
narrowly mixed. South American weather forecasts remains mixed with drier 
weather expected for Argentina to allow planting to progress while northern 
Brazil remains excessively dry for the early part of the growing season with 
the second week pattern looking to invert that. Weekly crop progress is 
expected to keep progress just behind normal, and export inspections were 
strong at 1.77 million metric tons. On the November chart, trade is above all 
the major moving averages, with the 200-day at $9.75 first support, with 
resistance the recent high at $10.03. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with trade trying to hold 
onto the strong finish from last week. The dollar is treading water around 93 
on the index. U.S. exports have been slowed lately as Black Sea origin continue 
to dominate. Australia will see more focus coming forward as well as the 
growing season progresses with some flood damage concerns in South America. The 
weekly crop progress is expected to show planting progress and emergence behind 
normal, with export inspections remaining soft at 322,860 metric tons. On the 
December Kansas City support is the the 10-day at $4.33 with resistance at the 
20-day at $4.42.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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