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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/28 10:50

   Corn, Soybeans Higher at Midday

   Trade is higher at midday led by soybeans.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 140 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 33 points lower. 
Energies are higher with crude up $0.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold down $8.20.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade following the lead of 
soybeans, with outside markets helping to back trade off the 13 cents higher 
move seen overnight. The forecast remains cool over the next week with limited 
rain for the center of the belt with heat potentially returning the second 
week. Ethanol margins are fairly steady this morning with blender margins still 
under pressure from firmer ethanol futures. The weekly progress and conditions 
report left good to excellent unchanged at 75%, and poor to very poor 1% higher 
at 5%, with silking at 6% vs. 3% last year and 5% on average. Conditions did 
decline in some of the key production states like Illinois. On the December 
chart support is at the $3.90 3/4 100-day then the $3.82 1/2 low printed 
Friday. Resistance is the 200-day moving at $3.96, which we have edged above 
this morning, with the 50-day at $4.06 above that.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 14 to 17 cents higher at midday with strong demand, 
especially from China helping to underpin trade. Meal is $6 to $7 higher, and 
oil is flat to 10 points higher. The market is expecting an acreage increase on 
the June 30th Planting Intentions report which should help to keep trade 
defensive ahead of the report to some degree, although strong demand will help 
lead the front months. Weather looks to bring rain to double crop areas  while 
other areas look to struggle again this week, with heat returning in the 
extended forecast. The weekly conditions and progress report had good to 
excellent 72% down 1%, and poor to very poor unchanged at 5%, with blooming at 
9% vs. 7% last year and on average. On the November soybean chart support is at 
the 50-day at $10.63, resistance is at the 20-day at 11.20, which we are above 
overnight. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with harvest pressure helping to 
pull trade back from the overnight highs. Rains should have slowed harvest in 
areas of Kansas, but overall progress remains pretty good as they cross the 
halfway point with some yields pushing triple digits even on dryland in North 
Central Kansas. Growing concerns about crop conditions are picking up in the 
Red River Valley with conditions declining sharply the last two weeks. The 
weekly crop progress report had winter wheat at 62% good to excellent, 8% poor 
to very poor, up 1 percentage point with harvest at 45%, 4% above average, 
while spring wheat was 4% lower at 72% good to excellent and 5% poor to very 
poor with 56% headed vs. 27% on average. On the July KC chart the 10-day and 
lowest major moving average is resistance at $4.36 with support at the $4.11 
fresh contract low. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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