April 28, 2016
Portland Price Trends
04-01-15 08-01-15 03-01-16 04-21-16 04-28-16
#1 SWW (bu) 6.87 5.67 4.90 5.32 5.28
White Club 9.37 6.42 5.10 5.62 5.48
DNS 14% 9.12 6.19 5.95 6.28 6.27
HRW 11.5% 7.04 5.60 5.34 5.73 5.49
#2 Corn (ton) 171.00 160.00 153.00 165.00 166.00
#2 Barley 160.00 159.00 145.00 140.00 145.00
Wheat...Lower prices and a weaker dollar over the past week helped to
generate a decent week of demand for U.S. wheat, and a recovery across the
futures complex helped west coast wheat prices gain back ground this week.
Weaker basis levels from week to week were a reflection of the rolling to
July futures. Country traders are reporting heavy volumes of old crop were
priced on last week's rally.
Basis...West coast wheat basis levels remain reflective of the slowed
pace of demand this year, with all three primary classes of wheat trading
below respective ten-year averages for late April. white wheat at a basis
of 43 over Chicago stands a dime under average and hard red winter 11.5%
pro at plus 85 to Kansas City is 15 cents below average. Hard red spring
wheat basis is trading well below average at 85 over Minneapolis futures;
half of average a more than a standard deviation below the late April mean.
Export Sales...USDA reported a surprisingly good week of demand for US
wheat over the past week, coming in above trade expectations at nearly 13
mb. Year-to-date sales stand at 734 mb, 14% behind a year ago versus USDA
projections for finishing the year down 9%. Hard red winter was the top
seller for the week with 5.3 mb and now sets 22% behind a year ago; hard
red spring booked 4.1 mb and is down 13% from a year ago; and white wheat
registered another 2.1 mb to put current sales 3% behind a year ago. Top
buyers for the week was Mexico, accounting for 4.4 mb, following by Japan,
Taiwan and Colombia. New crop sales were at 16.7 mb for the week, putting
total sales at 88 mb compared to 90 mb at this time last year.
-Norm Ruhoff Extension Economist
University of Idaho CALS-AERS
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