September 11, 2014
Portland Price Trends
09-02-13 01-01-14 08-01-14 09-04-14 09-05-14
#1 SWW (bu) 7.40 7.03 6.92 6.90 6.80
White Club 7.60 7.63 8.17 9.40 9.30
HRS 14% 8.24 8.10 8.31 9.08 9.32
HRW 11.5% 8.75 7.62 7.62 7.50 7.36
#2 Corn (ton) 280.00 186.00 185.00 172.00 172.00
#2 Barley 180.00 155.00 175.00 160.00 155.00
Wheat...USDA acknowledgement of burgeoning global wheat supplies and a
reduced US export forecast pulled all wheat markets lower today. Futures
did bounce off the lows, however, and basis levels continue to strengthen
which is helping offset some of the declines. Spring wheat basis climbed
40 cents this week, soft white gained a dime and red winter was unchanged.
Weekly Sales..The retreat in U.S. wheat prices finally stimulated some
much-needed demand last week, with overall sales hitting the second-best
tally of the year with 25 mb. Taiwan registered as the top buyer with 3.6
mb, but Malaysia, the Philippines and Nigeria each reported in at 3 mb or
more. Soft white wheat hit the best level of the year with 7.4 mb to put
total sales at 75 mb and 5% ahead of last year. Spring wheat also hit a
high water mark for the year at 8 mb, for total sales of 139 mb that sets
42% ahead of last year.
Crop Report...USDA numbers this month acknowledged the slower pace of
demand, adding to US wheat inventories. White wheat exports were dropped
5 mb to 145 mb, the lowest in 5 years, and stocks-to-use was bumped by 2%
from last month to 21% but remains the tightest of any class. Exports for
hard red winter exports were also decreased 15 mb but stocks-use remains
the tightest since 2007. Soft red winter claimed the only month-to-month
carryout reduction on a 5 mb increase in exports. Hard red spring took a
one-two punch, with Canadian imports and reduced exports adding 20 mb to
carryout and pushing stocks-use up 4% from last month to 42%; a 12% jump
over last year and the highest since 2007.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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