August 28, 2014
Portland Price Trends
08-01-13 01-01-14 07-01-14 08-21-14 08-28-14
#1 SWW (bu) 7.40 7.03 7.15 7.05 7.15
White Club 7.40 7.63 7.65 9.10 9.40
HRS 14% 8.47 8.10 8.29 8.15 8.57
HRW 11.5% 8.20 7.62 7.90 7.32 7.69
#2 Corn (ton) 260.00 186.00 189.00 160.00 180.00
#2 Barley 210.00 155.00 170.00 183.00 165.00
Wheat...West coast wheat bids ratcheted higher this week, tagging along
with stronger futures. Most notable was the performance in hard red spring
wheat, which surged as exporters pushed for nearby movement against a late
harvest and northern-tier freight bottlenecks. PNW hard red spring wheat
bids have gained more than 40 cents the past week, closing a nickel below
the marketing year high, while hard red winter tacked-on 37 cents and sets
55 cents above the recent low and back in-line with the ytd average. White
white gained a dime on the week, tempered by slow demand, but western club
wheat put on another 30 cents. Open weather allowed good progress on the
remaining spring wheat harvest.
Weekly Sales..US wheat sales continue to struggle against cheaper world
origins, with total demand coming in shy of 15 mb over the past week to put
the year-to-date total 26% behind last year and 5% under the 5-year average
for the third week in August. Hard red winter found some encouragement over
the past week with Brazil and Nigeria returning to the market, helping add
7.5 mb to put that class 33% under last year, and hard red spring recorded
the best performance in a month with 4.4 mb to put sales 40% better on top
of last year and 30% ahead of the 5-year average. Soft white sales remain
tepid, with 2.4 mb last week putting sales at 67 mb for the year, slipping
below last years pace for the first time this marketing year.
Sales by Class...White wheat sales are tracking close to last year, but
are missing the "swing" business from Yemen which has not bought any white
wheat ytd compared to nearly 8 mb at this time last year. Increases going
to South Korea, Japan and the Philippines have made up that differnce. For
hard red winter, ytd sales are running 40 mb off the 5-year average. Sales
to Brazil are off 29 mb from last year, and Mexican demand stands at 10 mb
below a year ago. Nigeria, another traditional hard red winter buyer, has
moved their ytd purchases within 3 mb of last year on last week's buying.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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