DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/27 11:32
Grains Mixed at Midday
Mixed slow midday action following the sell-off on Monday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 75 points. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 25 points higher.
Energies are lower with crude down 1.45. Livestock trade has hogs mixed, but
feeders and live cattle are sharply lower. Precious metals are lower with gold
Corn trade is fractionally higher at midday; the trading range has been from
around 2 lower to 2 higher since the start of the overnight. The limited
follow-through selling so far has been a positive for market bulls. The stock
market is higher, gold is lower, the dollar higher with, if anything, the
outside markets showing stability after the presidential debate last night. The
weekly condition number remained at 74% good to excellent. Crop progress listed
15% of the crop harvested versus the 19% average, but 73% of the crop was
listed as mature versus the 64% average. The slower-than-expected harvest
number seemed to limit selling. On the December contract, chart support is at
$3.26 1/2, the three-week low, then the contract low at $3.14 3/4. The 20-day
at $3.31 3/4 is nearby resistance then $3.40, last week's high, then $3.44 1/4,
the August-September high. We found resistance around the 20-day overnight. Two
daily closes below the 20-day, and all major moving averages, is a negative
technical item. Long liquidation is a risk this afternoon.
Soybean futures are 3 lower at midday in slow trade after we saw some
follow-through selling take us to new multi-month lows. Meal is down $1 and
bean oil is down 10 points. The weekly condition report was unchanged at 73%
good to excellent. Crop progress listed the crop 10% harvested versus the 13%
average pace, but 68% of the crop was listed dropping leaves versus the 64%
average pace. Harvest activity should be active this week and next giving
harvest pressure along with chart pressure. We slipped below nearby support at
$9.37 this morning but have recovered as of midday. November soybean support is
at $9.37, the previous the five-month low, then $9.34, our low this morning.
Resistance is at the $9.60 area where we find both the 10-day and 20-day moving
Wheat trade is around a nickel higher at midday across the three markets. We
were briefly lower with spillover pressure from the row crops this morning, but
at midday the momentum is back to flat to higher. The weekly export inspections
were good Monday at 875,049 metric ton. Any positive fresh export news will
limit downside, but we need consistent news to get some demand buying going in
the bigger picture. The weekly progress listed winter wheat plantings at 30%
and emergence at 8%, both numbers were right at the average. On the KC December
chart, support is at $4.14, the 20-day and lowest major moving average;
resistance is at $4.25 3/4, which is the September high. We did dip below the
20-day, pick up a few sell stops and are back above it here at midday.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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