DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/11 11:05
Grains Flat or Slightly Higher at Midday
Grain trade is mostly higher at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow futures down 85. The interest
rate products are higher. The dollar index is 7 lower. Energies are mixed,
crude is down 0.75. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with
gold down $2.
Corn trade is flat to 2 higher in quiet midday trade. Outside markets are
neutral to slightly negative this morning. Trade had a limited reaction after
yesterday's report, with the carryout down 100 million bushels domestically to
1.792 billion bushels, and world stocks easing slightly as well. On the March
chart, resistance is at the 50-day moving average at $4.41. Chart support is
the 20-day moving average at $4.31. If trade can work above $4.41, there will
be a slight near-term uptrend intact. Exports and ethanol use remain supportive
as positive margins attract users, with ethanol production up 3.4% on the week,
while stocks moved 0.07% higher with strong demand persisting. The USDA
announced 120,000 metric tons of corn sold to unknown as well.
Soybean trade is 1 to 4 higher across the board at midday with meal flat to
$1 higher, and oil 20 to 30 points higher. South American weather continues to
be viewed as neutral although next week's hot stretch is raising some concerns,
with corn-planting delays potentially attracting additional soybean acres.
World soybean stocks were virtually unchanged on the report, while domestic
carryout was down 20 million bushels. January soybean chart support is at
$13.16, the 20-day, then $12.92, the 50-day. Trade put in a new high yesterday
at $13.53 which is the new resistance, before finishing slightly lower.
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday across the three exchanges as wheat
tries to stabilize after yesterday's break. Wheat trade has gotten heavily
oversold and is likely due some sort of bounce. World wheat carryout was 4
million metric tons higher than November, while domestic carryout rose 10
million bushels putting some pressure on the market yesterday. Weather concerns
remain limited in the near term, although cold weather looks to linger for a
while. Asian interest for wheat remains active.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser
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