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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/24 11:14

   Grain Trade Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower at midday with trade off early lows as the Brexit news is 
absorbed.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   U.S. stock market indices are lower with the DOW futures down 460 points. 
Interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 200 points higher. 
Energies are lower with crude down $2.10. Livestock trade is lower. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold up $55.

   CORN

   Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents lower at midday after trading down around 15 
cents overnight into early this morning. Then we were back to being green very 
briefly around 9:30 a.m. CDT. So the action today is an appropriate ending to a 
dynamic week. This has been a dynamic month and next week promises to be active 
as well with the USDA June 30th Acreage report as well as the key 4th of July 
summer weather weekend next weekend. Obviouisly the big news is the United 
Kingdom voted to exit the EU. The dollar is up 200 points which is bearish for 
commodities in dollar terms so the weakness today makes sense from that 
standpoint. No supply or demand major changes occurred here, so fundamentally 
weather is still the trump card as it will make the most difference on our 
supply during pollination over the next 5-6 weeks. The overnight forecasts 
scaled back the amount of rain in the Western Corn Belt over the next week, but 
milder temperatrues remain for next week. So we could say the forecasts are 
slightly supportive versus Thursday. Noon forecasts should control where we 
close this afternoon. Some weather premium is a supportive argument, but margin 
calls by market longs will battle the buyers due to long liquidation. Expect a 
very active afternoon. On the December chart support is at the $3.90 3/4 
100-day then the $3.82 1/2 low printed early today. The 100-day is the lowest 
major moving average; we picked up sell stops on the emotional sell-off then 
bounced. Resistance is at the $3.96 200-day then the $4.06 50-day moving 
average.  

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday with selling continuing 
post Brexit, albeit momentum is flat at midday. Meal is $6 to $7 lower and oil 
is 45 to 55 points lower. The market is expecting an acreage increase on the 
June 30th Acreage report which should keep trade defensive ahead of the report. 
The BREXIT has the dollar firm and stocks and energys lower, so the outside 
market pressure is the number one reason for our weak market today. Futures are 
7-9 cents above the daily lows here at midday. Weather looks fairly 
non-threatening in the near term forecasts, but some drier areas continue to 
linger which the trade is watching. The USDA announced 411,5000 metric tons of 
soybeans sold to unknown, 2/3 old crop, and 1/3 new crop. On the November 
soybean chart support is at the 50-day at $10.60, resistance is at the 20-day 
at 11.15.  

   WHEAT

   Wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents lower across the three contracts at midday 
with the sharply stronger dollar helping to pile on the wheat trade along with 
harvest pressure. The heavy rains forecast for Kansas next week could slow 
harvest pace, although the forecast seems to have moved them north which should 
keep progress moving quickly. The July Minneapolis has held above nearby 
support at the 100-day which is at $5.22 before sinking just through it 
overnight. Spring wheat has been supported due to Canadian wheat concerns. On 
the July KC chart the 10-day and lowest major moving average is resistance at 
$4.45 with support at the $4.18 fresh contract low.  

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


(BAS)

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