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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/27 11:37

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Firm midday trade has most contracts near the daily highs; a weak dollar and 
short profit taking are noted for strength.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are narrowly mixed. The interest rate products 
are weak. The dollar index is 84 points lower. Energies are firmer with crude 
up 80. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are mixed.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher at midday due to outside market support 
with the dollar and crude both higher. After the sell off last week many 
traders have noted the oversold conditions bringing in short profit taking at 
midday. The USDA reports on Friday also have traders wanting to go to the 
sidelines and wait for the numbers. The average trade guess for the June USDA 
Planting Intentions number is 89.82 million acres versus 89.996 in March and 
94.004 a year ago. The range of estimates is 89-90.6. The June 1 Quarterly 
Grain stocks are expected to be at 5.16 billion bushels versus 4.711 billion a 
year ago. The weekly crop progress report showed conditions unchanged at 67% 
good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor when the market was expecting a 
light bump up; this is also noted supporting trade. July corn futures have 
support at the new low printed Friday at $3.56 with resistance at the $3.70 
10-day moving average. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 8 cents higher at midday and we have been up a dime, meal 
is $1 higher and soybean oil s up 55 points.  The weekly crop progress had 
conditions unchanged at 66% good to excellent when the trade was looking for a 
1-3% increase. This along with friendly outside markets has beans trying to 
rally today. The USDA June Planting Intentions expectations are limiting upside 
with the average trade guess at 89.95 million acres versus 89.5 million on the 
March report and up from 83.4 million a year ago. This would be the first-year 
soybean acreage surpasses corn and frankly the first year they have been close 
to each other. The June 1 stocks are expected to be at 981 million bushels 
versus 872 a year ago. July beans have major support at the $9.00 14-month low 
made last week, with the 10-day and 20-day at $9.22-$9.24 first resistance 
area.  

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is around a nickel higher on the winter wheat contracts and up 
15 on Minneapolis; new highs for the move have been scored on Minneapolis. The 
weak dollar and spillover support from the row crops are helping us see the 
wheat strength. The average trade guess for the all wheat planted number is at 
46.045 million acres versus 46.059 on the March report. The June 1 Quarterly 
Wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.154 billion versus 976 billion a year ago. 
 So no bullish or bearish surprises are expected on Friday. The spring wheat 
acreage estimate is at 11.234 versus 11.308 on the March report; the spring 
wheat acreage number is one area the market will be watching closely. Spring 
wheat was only rated 40% good to excellent on the weekly report yesterday 
afternoon. On the July Kansas City contract support is the 100-day at $4.52 
with resistance the 10-day at $4.65.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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