DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/21 11:25
Grains Trending Lower at Midday
Trade is mildly lower at midday with momentum flat.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 70 points.
The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 44 points higher.
Energies are mixed with crude up 1.00. Livestock trade is higher. Precious
metals are mixed with gold down 1.90.
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower at midday with flat momentum; the market
was up a few cents overnight and down 2 cents this morning. Ethanol margins
remain poor but spring driving season continues to grow closer giving some
optimism. Ethanol is down a penny at midday. Double-crop planting in Brazil
will continue to expand in coming days. The weekly export inspections were good
at 1.152 million metric tons, with daily announcements of sales of 269,296
metric tons to Japan, and 111,200 to unknown on the daily wire. The USDA
outlook forum this week will shine more light on expected 2017 acre figures.
Support is at the $3.68 20-day and $3.67 200-day which we are testing this
morning, with resistance now at the $3.72 10-day followed by the $3.80 high.
Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade giving back the
overnight strength pretty quickly during the day session with harvest pressure
building out of Brazil. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points lower
making fresh lows again this morning. Crop size expectations remain strong for
Brazil with some concerns about harvest wetness lingering, but the strong
Brazilian real remains the bigger story for export competition. The weekly
export inspections remain solid at 1.076 million metric tons. On the March
soybean chart support is now at the $10.18 200-day and resistance at the $10.44
20-day, with trade falling below the 50-day at $10.35.
Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents lower across the three contracts at midday after
early mixed trade. The firmer dollar will limit upside, but it remains overall
in the lower side of the post-election range. The warm stretch will continue to
raise concerns about breaking dormancy early, with the more extended forecast
showing potentially for a cold snap into early March for the western belt with
moisture angled north for now. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas caught some rains
over the week. The weekly export inspections were better at 585,252 metric
tons, and 138,650 metric tons sold to unknown on the daily wire. On the March
Kansas City contract support is at the $4.50 200-day. Resistance is at the
seven-month high at $4.74 1/2 which was printed on Thursday with the 10-day at
$4.56 just above that.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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