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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/21 11:31

   Grains Are Flat to Higher at Midday

   Trade is higher across the board at midday but momentum is flat.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 75. The interest 
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 9 lower. Energies are higher with 
crude oil up 0.60. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold down $16. 


   Corn trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday after trading around a nickel 
higher or better early on in the session. Commercial buying has helped to 
support the market, with the intermonth spreads firming in addition to the 
basis improving in many areas of the country. The crop tour continues to move 
along with generally good potential being found with Iowa and Minnesota to 
finish out the tour today. The weather is a non-issue for corn this week. 
Moisture is around and conditions warm with forecasts for northern growing area 
moisture where August moisture can do the most good. In another two weeks 
moisture should be viewed as bad for corn, but for now this should add some 
additional yield. Ethanol margins remain very good after another supportive 
weekly production report. The weekly export sales were 99,900 metric tons of 
old crop, and 719,300 of new crop. On the chart, the 10-day and 20-day moving 
averages are clustered at $3.70, which trade is just below. A finish above 
$3.70 will keep trade sideways trending, and a poor close today would set up 
for a retest of $3.58.


   Soybean trade is flat to 10 cents higher at midday with the September 
contract leading. Meal is $6 to $7 higher, and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. 
Weather outlooks were improved with some additional moisture for soybeans this 
week, in the 6-10- and the 11-15-day outlooks. This will be good for later 
group beans. Temperatures could become a concern if the below normal 
temperatures stick around in the north. Old crop supply tightness should keep 
the September contract active, but the new crop months are not concerned about 
supply with the big crop growing. The trend remains down other than September 
with nearby basis firm at the processors keeping nearby futures supported. The 
crop tour continues to find plenty of pods so far, but lagging maturity in 
general. The weekly export sales were -99,800 metric tons of old crop beans, 
1.42 million of new crop; 99,800 metric tons of old crop meal, 76,800 of new 
crop meal, and 20,500 combined of bean oil.


   Wheat trade is 2 to 8 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with 
renewed commercial interest supporting trade. Spread trade continues to firm 
between contract months and classes of wheat which remains and encouraging 
demand sign. The spring wheat harvest will likely continue to be slow, and 
trade will watch further development in the Ukraine, with the Ukrainian 
government going on the offensive vs. the rebels. Support is $6.18 at the 
10-day moving average on the Kansas City Sept contract with Chicago support at 
the $5.41 10-day moving average, which we are holding above these areas at 
midday. The weekly export sales were disappointing at 209,200 metric tons. 
StatsCanada pegged all wheat production at 27.7 million metric tons.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com. 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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