DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/28 11:12
All Grains Higher at Midday
Trade is higher across the board at midday after strong export sales.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed, with the Dow down 5. The interest
rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 40 points lower. Energies
are mixed with crude up .20. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle lower.
Precious metals are higher with gold up $16.
Corn trade is 7 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade finding good buying
after strong export sales. South American weather has shown some improvement,
but dryness looks to return to Brazil in the extended forecast which could
continue to stress the second corn crop. Cooler and wetter weather here will
keep planting slow is areas in the near term, but overall progress remains
ahead of pace and should stay that way. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable
with blender margins improving. The weekly export sales were outstanding with
2.16 million metric tons of old crop, and 440,000 of new crops On the July
chart support is the 20-day at $3.73 3/4 with trade moving through the 200-day
moving average at $3.88 this morning.
Soybean trade is 12 to 15 cents higher with good buying returning at midday
with support from better exports and weather concerns. Meal is $8.50 to $9.50
higher and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. Planting progress will remain slow in
the U.S., but it is too early to be an issue. Argentina harvest should start to
gain more momentum soon with flooding starting to recede. The weekly export
sales were good at 226,000 metric tons of old crop, 720,400 of new, 209,600
metric tons of meal, and 9,600 of oil. The chart continues to hold the up trend
with support found on Monday at the 10-day and highest major moving average.
Chart buying is one of the main items noted supporting trade this week. On the
July soybean chart the 10-day moving average at $10.05 is support with
resistance at the $10.46 1/4 high put in this morning.
Wheat trade is 7 to 12 cents higher at midday with trade finding buying from
the weaker dollar, spillover from row crop trade, and some export improvement.
The bull argument continues to need improved export demand with world supplies
still ample overall. The weekly export sales were strong at 351,900 metric tons
of old crop, and 454,700 of new crop. Disease concerns will continue in some of
the wetter areas. The cold weather in continental Europe will slow growth
there, but Russia has seen good weather so far. The July Kansas City chart had
resistance at the $4.76 3/4 20-day which we have popped through this morning
and support at the recent lows at $4.53.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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