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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/06 11:14

   Wheat has turned higher at midday while row crops are in the middle of our 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow index down 45 points. Interest 
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 8 points higher. Energies are 
higher with crude lower $2.90. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold up $2.


   Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents lower at midday, bouncing off a dime lower 
trade overnight on concerns about the Greek situation after voters rejected the 
bailout plan in a referendum. Ethanol margins are under pressure for producers 
and blenders with crude oil sharply lower, but DDG values have improved on the 
firmer meal values in recent days. Weather was drier through the weekend, but 
renewed rains are forecasted over the next week. The weekly export inspections 
were OK at 839,824 metric tons. The weekly crop progress and condition report 
expectations are mixed with some expecting a slide in conditions and others no 
change to 1% improvement. Progress should remain behind normal slightly. On the 
December chart support is at the 200-day moving average at $4.03, with the 
10-day moving average just above that at $4.05. Resistance is at the $4.40 
December high then the $4.50 12-month high.   


   Soybean futures are 2 to 15 cents lower at midday, with meal $3 to $4 lower 
and oil 50 to 60 points lower. Drier forecasts should have supported some late 
planting this weekend, but renewed moisture will limit improvements in the 
Eastern Belt in the near term. The weekly export inspections were normal for 
this time of year at 197,441 metric tons. The weekly crop condition report is 
expected to show progress behind normal and another slide in conditions. On the 
November chart the 10-day moving average at $9.92 is support with $10.56 3/4 
resistance, which is our 10-month high.   


   Wheat futures are 2 to 7 cents higher at midday with the spring wheat 
leading a rally off 20-cent lower trade overnight with world weather concerns 
boosting spring wheat. Harvest should move past the halfway point this weekend, 
and should continue to advance this week. The soft winter wheat harvest will 
likely remain slow. Drier weather looks to persist elsewhere in the world in 
the near term. Export inspections were soft at 368,818 metric tons. Weekly crop 
progress should show spring wheat conditions steady. On the September KC wheat 
chart support is at the $5.79 200-day, with the 10-day at $5.65 the next round 
of support. The major high is the December 2014 high just above $7.   

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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