DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/30 11:07
Grains Mixed at Midday
Mixed slow action at midday with ahead of the report.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 165 points. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 14 points higher.
Energies are mixed with crude up 0.17. Livestock trade is sharply lower.
Precious metals are mixed with gold down $2.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to chop
around in the lower end of the recent range with China opening up corn exports
and harvest pressure. Ethanol margins remain positive with crude holding the
rally on the week. The weather forecast looks open except for the east which
should allow better harvest progress in the west. The USDA is releasing the
September 1 Quarterly Stocks report on Friday morning. Expectations are at
1.757 billion bushels with a range estimates of 1.665-1.862 billion versus
1.716 on the September WASDE old crop balance sheet. On the December contract,
chart support is at $3.25, the 3 week low, then the contract low at $3.14 3/4.
The 20-day at $3.31 3/4 is nearby resistance then $3.40, last week's high, then
$3.44 1/4, the August-September high.
Soybean futures are narrowly mixed at midday with demand helping trade to
firm off the overnight lows as USDA announced 198,000 metric tons of soybeans
sold to unknown, and 118,000 to China. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 10
to 20 points higher. Harvest pressure should continue to build with the more
open weather in the west allowing farmers to play catch up. The Quarterly
Stocks average trade guess is 202 million bushels versus 195 on the September
WASDE old crop carryover estimate. The range of estimates is 158-256 million.
November soybean support is at $9.37, the previous the five-month low, then
$9.34, our low yesterday. Resistance is at the $9.60 area where we find both
the 10-day and 20-day moving averages.
Wheat trade is mixed with Chicago and Kansas City down 5 to 7, and
Minneaplis 1 to 3 cents higher. The dollar remains fairly rangebound, keeping
the world export competitiveness around the same as recent days. The early
dollar strength faded during the day session today. Any positive fresh export
news will limit downside, but we need consistent news to get some demand buying
going in the bigger picture. The September 1 Wheat stocks average trade guess
is at 2.398 billion bushels; the range of estimates is 2.1-2.558 billion. On
the Kansas City December chart support is at $4.15, the 20-day and lowest major
moving average which we are just below pre-report; resistance is at $4.25 3/4
which is the September high.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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