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DTN Midday Grain Comments     12/19 11:33

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Grain trade is lower across the board at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are flat to higher with the DOW futures up 10 
points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 26 higher. 
Energies are mixed with crude $1.80 higher. Livestock trade is mixed with 
cattle higher and hogs lower. Precious metals are flat to higher with gold up 


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with light selling surfacing due 
to spillover pressure from wheat and a firmer dollar. Ethanol margins remain 
under pressure for the blender and producer, but plants continue to run hard 
with basis mostly stable. Ethanol futures are lower at midday, while unleaded 
gas futures are slightly higher. Corn exports were announced to Japan and 
Mexico for a total of 237,200 metric tons. The March corn chart items remain 
the same with support at $4.02 at the 10-day moving average and resistance at 
the $4.22 200-day moving average. This has been a sideways trading week so 
quiet action is expected. The trend remains up so if this Friday is a trend day 
we should find our way into the green by the close. 


   Soybean trade is 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with meal $4 to $5 lower and 
bean oil flat to 10 points higher. Spread trade has softened this week 
indicating that commercial demand is slowing. The South American weather items 
have not provided much impact this week. Nearby January chart support now is at 
the $10.19 100-day then the $10.13 50-day. Resistance is at the $10.37 10-day 
moving average, and the recent high at $10.60. Trade looks to stay mostly range 
bound into the weekend. We are near the daily lows at midday and the trend is 
leaning negative this week. So if we challenge the 100-day, currently around a 
nickel below the market, we should expect sizeable sell stops under it. This 
could give us more active trade versus the slower midday action.


   Wheat trade is 8 to 18 lower across the three exchanges at midday with 
profit taking surfacing after the strong run we have seen this week. Selling 
has been mostly non-commercial so far with commercial business still concerned 
over future disruptions from Russia. Weather items appear fairly benign with 
some beneficial snow cover developing in some northern hemisphere locations. 
The dollar is back at the recent highs which should help to keep some sort of 
lid on rallies. On the March KC chart we moved through the 200-day moving 
average at $6.82 early in the week, but failed to hold the area, which leaves 
support at the 10-day moving average of $6.47 for now. The Chicago March 
200-day and highest major moving average is at $6.15, which trade remains 
comfortably above.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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