DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/24 11:14
Grain Trade Lower at Midday
Trade is lower at midday with trade off early lows as the Brexit news is
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
U.S. stock market indices are lower with the DOW futures down 460 points.
Interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 200 points higher.
Energies are lower with crude down $2.10. Livestock trade is lower. Precious
metals are mixed with gold up $55.
Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents lower at midday after trading down around 15
cents overnight into early this morning. Then we were back to being green very
briefly around 9:30 a.m. CDT. So the action today is an appropriate ending to a
dynamic week. This has been a dynamic month and next week promises to be active
as well with the USDA June 30th Acreage report as well as the key 4th of July
summer weather weekend next weekend. Obviouisly the big news is the United
Kingdom voted to exit the EU. The dollar is up 200 points which is bearish for
commodities in dollar terms so the weakness today makes sense from that
standpoint. No supply or demand major changes occurred here, so fundamentally
weather is still the trump card as it will make the most difference on our
supply during pollination over the next 5-6 weeks. The overnight forecasts
scaled back the amount of rain in the Western Corn Belt over the next week, but
milder temperatrues remain for next week. So we could say the forecasts are
slightly supportive versus Thursday. Noon forecasts should control where we
close this afternoon. Some weather premium is a supportive argument, but margin
calls by market longs will battle the buyers due to long liquidation. Expect a
very active afternoon. On the December chart support is at the $3.90 3/4
100-day then the $3.82 1/2 low printed early today. The 100-day is the lowest
major moving average; we picked up sell stops on the emotional sell-off then
bounced. Resistance is at the $3.96 200-day then the $4.06 50-day moving
Soybean futures are 14 to 16 cents lower at midday with selling continuing
post Brexit, albeit momentum is flat at midday. Meal is $6 to $7 lower and oil
is 45 to 55 points lower. The market is expecting an acreage increase on the
June 30th Acreage report which should keep trade defensive ahead of the report.
The BREXIT has the dollar firm and stocks and energys lower, so the outside
market pressure is the number one reason for our weak market today. Futures are
7-9 cents above the daily lows here at midday. Weather looks fairly
non-threatening in the near term forecasts, but some drier areas continue to
linger which the trade is watching. The USDA announced 411,5000 metric tons of
soybeans sold to unknown, 2/3 old crop, and 1/3 new crop. On the November
soybean chart support is at the 50-day at $10.60, resistance is at the 20-day
Wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents lower across the three contracts at midday
with the sharply stronger dollar helping to pile on the wheat trade along with
harvest pressure. The heavy rains forecast for Kansas next week could slow
harvest pace, although the forecast seems to have moved them north which should
keep progress moving quickly. The July Minneapolis has held above nearby
support at the 100-day which is at $5.22 before sinking just through it
overnight. Spring wheat has been supported due to Canadian wheat concerns. On
the July KC chart the 10-day and lowest major moving average is resistance at
$4.45 with support at the $4.18 fresh contract low.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
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