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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/11 11:44

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Dollar weakness and short profit taking have grain trade higher at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indexes are lower with the Dow futures down 310 
points. The interest rate products are higher due to the talk of negative rates 
yesterday. The dollar index is 60 points lower and at the lowest level since 
October 22. Energies are mixed with crude down 50 cents and unleaded up a 
penny. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle lower and hogs higher. Precious 
metals are sharply higher with gold up $60.


   Corn trade is 2 higher at midday; we did drop down to a new low for the move 
by less than a penny and then bounced a nickel. The weekly export sales were 
not supportive coming in below expectations at 405,000 metric tons but some 
fresh business today has been talked about. The weekly EIA number yesterday 
listed ethanol stocks 2.66% higher, production 1.04% higher and gas demand up 
9%, this pressured ethanol. The USDA estimate shows ethanol usages strong and 
growing, but deteriorating margins has a little bit of that usage at risk. On 
the March chart the $3.67 area is resistance where we find the 10-, 20-, and 
50-day moving averages. Support is at the $3.59 1/4 low printed yesterday and 
this morning then the $3.48 1/2 contract low. 


   Soybean trade is up a dime at midday with some upside momentum; meal is up 
$3 and bean oil is up 50 points. The trading range for beans was only 3 cents 
overnight, but after failing to fall further since the USDA report, shorts 
turned to cover, and end users like the lower prices, plus the dollar is 
favorable for export business which has been rumored this morning. The weekly 
export sales numbers were near the high side of expectations at 667k tons, meal 
at 189k tons and bean oil at 3.8k tons. On the March soybean chart the double 
digit midday gains only brings us back to a few cents from nearby resistance at 
the $8.75 1/2 20-day, with the 100-day at $8.81 our resistance level above 
there. Support is at the $8.59 1/2 weekly low then the $8.52 early January low. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday in slow trade; wheat is a 
nickel off its daily highs. The weekly export sales did not support the bulls 
coming in at only 263k tons. The USDA numbers were negative on Tuesday but with 
Kansas City reaching new contract lows before and after the report, the selling 
dried up and we bounced the past few days. Our midday market looks like that 
momentum has stalled. Wheat will need some friendly news to get more than a 
bounce this month. On the March Kansas City chart, the previous low at $4.51 
3/4 is chart resistance then the 10-day at $4.58. The high this morning is 
$4.51 1/2. The new contract low printed Tuesday at $4.42 1/4 is chart support. 

   contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne and a registered 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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