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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/23 11:00

   Grain Trade Mixed at Midday

   Corn and wheat lead at midday, new-crop soybeans are trading higher as well.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 20. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 8 lower. Energies are 
mixed with crude flat. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher 
with gold up $3. 


   Corn trade is 3 to 5 higher at midday. Outside markets are neutral to 
lightly supportive this morning. Ethanol production data showed production down 
29,000 barrels on the week, while stocks rose 566,000 barrels. Ethanol futures 
remain sideways for now as the inventory build was anticipated. Corn basis has 
remained fairly stable but most expect it to firm if futures stay range bound 
with producer movement stalled due to planting time. The USDA announced the 
sale of 120,000 metric tons of old-crop milo to China. On the chart, May corn 
is back above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages at $4.98 at midday. Trade 
will need to close above these areas to reestablish a short term up trend. 
Long-term support remains at the $4.68 200-day moving average. 


   Soybean trade is 1 to 3 lower on old crop at midday, with new-crop trade 3 
to 5 higher. Meal is flat and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. The spreads have 
softened a bit this morning indicating that commercial demand has softened in 
the near term. May beans have moved below the 10-day moving average at $14.90, 
and the 20-day at $14.76 and closing below these levels will help confirm a 
down trend, support is at the 50-day at $14.22. Key support for the November 
contract is $12.11, the 20-day, which we have held to start the week. Stats Can 
numbers tomorrow are expected to show canola planting intentions at 21 million 
versus 19.7 in 2013. 


   Wheat trade is 3 to 7 higher across the three contracts at midday with rain 
expected for a good chunk of the winter wheat belt today. Strength in corn is 
providing some spillover support. The extent of the freeze damage remains 
unknown which will help support trade especially with another cold snap coming. 
The 200-day moving averages are at $7.06 on the May Kansas City and $6.57 on 
the May Chicago and are the key support for now. On Thursday Stats Canada is 
expected to release its planting intentions numbers. The trade is expected all 
wheat acreage at 24.4 million down 1.5 from last year with the reduction cited 
as lower planted area overall. The poor rail issues resulted in too poor of 
prices for the 2013 crop. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.     

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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