DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/23 11:13
Soybeans Lower at Midday
Corn and wheat are flat, soybeans down sharply at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 60 points. The
interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is narrowly mixed.
Energies are mixed with crude up 1.05. Livestock trade are lower with crude
down 0.40. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $1.10.
Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with light two sided trade so
far. China placed tariffs on most distillers grain, which is adding pressure
along with the negative action in soybeans this morning. Harvest is expected to
be slowed in many areras this weekend by on going rains. Ethanol margins should
remain strong for producers with the firmer energy values this week, with
ethanol futures edging higher this morning. Basis pressure should build this
week as harvest expands into the weekend. The December contract chart support
is at the 10-day and 50-day at $3.36 then the 20-day at $3.31, with trade just
below the $3.36 area overnight, with the recent $3.44 high above that as
Soybean futures are 20 to 25 cents lower at midday with harvest pressure
and strong yields carrying the day so far. Meal is $5 to $6 lower and oil is 55
to 65 points lower. The export wire was quiet this morning which added to the
pressure. South American planting progress should continue with the forecast
shading drier overnight. Early harvest progress should refill the pipeline,
with basis moving to more normal levels as premiums evaporate going into the
weekend. The near term wetness issues look to clear up into October on some of
the recent forecasts. On the November chart, trade has fallen through support
at $9.62-9.63 on the 10-day to 20-day moving averages, with longer term support
the $9.43, and $9.37 reccent lows.
Wheat trade is flat to 2 higher at midday with wheat showing the most
strength this morning with India reducing import duties and Russia reducing
crop size slighty. The dollar trend remains lower as we head to the weekend,
which has helped as well. Big supplies will continue to hang over this market
and limit upside on bounces, with trade struggling to hold strength this
morning. There were no offers for the Egyptian tender as the ergot standard
change has not been made official yet, with Jordan coming back next week. On
the Kansas City December chart our trade is hanging just above the 10-day and
20-day moving averages at $4.13-4.18. This market has consolidated this month,
trade since September 2 trading in the $4.05-$4.25 range. Expect follow-through
if we move outside of this range. The 50-day at $4.28 is the next major moving
average to the upside, and the contract low at $3.95 remains major support.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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