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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/03 11:25

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower across the board at midday with wheat leading trade lower.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower, with the Dow down 205. The interest 
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 26 points higher. Energies are 
lower with crude down 1.30. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are lower with gold down $9.


   Corn trade is 11 to 12 cents lower at midday due to a number of items. There 
is talk of increased acreage in Brazil offsetting weather issues, plus outside 
markets are weak. Crop progress listed plantings at 45% which was in line with 
last year, and 15% ahead of the average which is providing pressure. Emergence 
was listed at 13% versus 7% last year and an 8% 5-year average. Weather is 
warming, which is welcome and will be good for the crop. Basis has started to 
stabilze after dropping off sharply with the rally. On the July chart, trade 
has set back below the 10-day and 200-day moving averages at $3.87 and the 
20-day at 3.80, which are now resistance and the 50-day at $3.72 is support.


   Soybean trade is 10 to 15 cents lower at midday with trade reversing from 
new highs posted overnight with continued volatile trade. Meal is $6 lower and 
bean oil is down 15 points. Momentum is down, so this does appear to be a key 
reversal day at this juncture. Crop progress listed 8% of the soybean crop 
planted versus 10% last year and a 6% 5-ear average. The market will start to 
focus on saturated areas where corn planting could get late and move to beans, 
otherwise for the start of May the planting progress is a fairly neutral market 
item at this juncture. Harvest progress should continue to pick up in South 
America with questions remaining about quantity and quality in Argentina. On 
the July soybean chart the 10-day moving average at $10.24 is support which we 
are testing at midday with resistance at the $10.57 high printed overnight. 


   Wheat trade is 10 to 16 cents lower across the contracts with the dollar 
reversing higher and good yield potential on the wheat tour encouraging selling 
at midday. The Kansas wheat tour will continue through the end of the week, and 
is expected to continue to confirm strong yield potential outweighing the 
reduced acres. The weekly progress numbers listed 42% of the winter wheat 
heading versus the 34% average. Spring wheat was 54% planted versus the 39% 
average. The winter wheat conditions were 2% better at 61% good to excellent 
versus 43% a year ago. The July Kansas City chart has resistance at the $4.74 
20-day with support at the recent and contract lows printed in March at $4.52 
3/4, which we are not too far from at midday.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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