DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/16 11:29
All Grains Lower at Midday
Grain trade is lower at midday, with soybeans the downside leader.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 40. The interest
rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 2 lower. Energies are
mostly higher with crude $1.30 higher. Livestock trade is mostly lower.
Precious metals are mixed with gold down $1.50.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday after trading 7 higher overnight
with the initial rally being faded by renewed selling during the day trade.
Spread trade continues to show a degree of firmness which indicates a degree of
commercial buying. FSA released certified acres at 84.833 million acres, with
1.58 million of prevented planting. Ethanol margins remain solid although off
their highs with the overall slide in energy prices. The weekly crop progress
report showed conditions unchanged at 74% good to excellent, 7% poor to very
poor. Progress was rated at 82% dented vs. 85% on average, 27% mature vs. 39%
on average, and 4% harvested vs. 9% on average. On the December chart, support
is at the $3.35 3/4 low with resistance at the 10-day moving average right at
$3.46, which we traded above overnight.
Soybean trade is 5 to 11 cents lower at midday with the intial overnight
strength being sold once the day trade opened. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil
is 30 to 40 points lower. FSA soybean acres were 80.4 million acres with
840,000 acres of prevent plant. Chinese crushers agreed to buy 4.1 million
metric tons of soybeans yesterday. NOPA crush was a bit below expectations at
110.6 million bushels with soyoil stocks at 1.213 billion lbs, down sharply
from the prior months stocks at 1.589 billion lbs. The weekly crop progress
report had steady conditions at 72% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very
poor, with 24% dropping leaves vs. 32% on average. Notable November soybean
chart support is at the new contract low printed last Thursday (USDA report
day) at $9.69 with resistance at $9.99, where we find the 10-day moving
Wheat trade is flat to 7 cents lower at midday with trade following the row
crops lower. The higher protein wheat have shown better action today after
losing in the spread trade in recent days. The dollar continues to slowly back
away from the recent highs, but is holding at levels that keep the U.S. fairly
uncompetitive in the export market, as shown by Egypt buying three cargos from
France today. The Southern Plains continue to battle ongoing drought, although
improved this past month, it can still hinder early planting and development of
wheat. The weekly crop progress report showed spring wheat 74% harvested vs.
86% on average, and winter wheat was 12% planted vs. 11% on average. Support on
the December Kansas City contract is $5.84, the low from yesterday, with first
resistance at $6.11, where we find the 10-day moving average.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN offers additional daily information available free through DTN Snapshot – sign up