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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/27 11:46

   Grains Trading Lower at Midday

   Trade continues to drift lower at midday despite a weak dollar.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 100 
points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 60 points 
lower. Energies are mixed with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is lower. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $7.  


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with the light early buying 
giving way to light selling during the day session with a lack of fresh news 
and spillover pressure. Wet weather looks to hinder field work in the US, along 
with wetter than desired weather in Argentina causing some issues. Ethanol 
margins are steady to soft, and weekly export inspections remained strong at 
1.556 million metric tons. Basis will likely remain steady this week as well 
with pre-planting movement ongoing, and some areas of isolated strength showing 
up. Lower prices are expected to lower planted acreage as well which is why we 
have a hard time being negative next week, and do expect some volatility on 
Friday around the two big USDA numbers: the March Planting Intentions and March 
Quarterly Grain Stocks report. On the May chart support is at the $3.52 late 
December low. Resistance is the 10-day at $3.61.  


   Soybean trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade testing the lows 
again after some initial positive action overnight. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and 
oil is 10 to 20 points lower. Ideas of big soybean acreage, a rising South 
American crop size and chart pressure continue to limit buying enthusiasm. 
Harvest should continue to move along well in Brazil with Argentina seeing some 
near term excessive wetness. The weekly export inspections were ok seasonally 
at 555,012 metric tons. On the May soybean chart nearby support is hard to 
identify. The one-year low is at $9.37 1/4. Resistance is at the 10-day and 
lowest major moving average at $9.97. 


   Wheat trade is 2 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to see 
pressure from the wetter forecast promoting growth on the southern plains along 
with continued burdensome supply situation. The dollar is sharply lower but 
that has not added much support so far. Warmer weather should continue to push 
growth along as well with development likely already solidly ahead of normal. 
The weekly export inspections remained solid at 541,799 metric tons. On the May 
Kansas City contract support is at the low printed today at $4.21, with 
resistance at the 100-day at $4.45.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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