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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/22 11:20

   Grains Mostly Higher at Midday

   Trade is higher across the board at midday but working below the early highs.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow down 18. The interest 
rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 24 higher.  Energies are 
mostly lower with crude oil down 0.80. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are higher with gold up $5. 


   Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents higher in quiet trade this morning.  The crop 
tour is wrapping up with no major surprises one way or another of yield 
potential, with overall good yields expected. Commercial buying has been a 
supportive factor this week with spreads firming especially on the 
September/December spread but this action has softened at midday. Basis has 
generally firmed this week with end-users working to step up coverage. Ethanol 
margins remain very good with the potential to stay very positive into winter. 
On the chart, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are clustered at $3.70, 
which trade is just above. A finish above $3.70 will keep trade sideways 
trending, and a poor close today would set up for a retest of $3.58.


   Soybean trade is flat to 17 cents higher with the September trade leading 
the way with the back months closer to unchanged. Meal is $19 to $20 higher, 
and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. Weather outlooks were improved with some 
additional moisture for soybeans this week, in the six-10- and the 11-15-day 
outlooks. This will be good for later group beans. Temperatures could become a 
concern if the below normal temperatures stick around in the north. Old-crop 
supply tightness should keep the September contract active, but the new crop 
months are not concerned about supply with the big crop growing. The nearby 
basis has firmed sharply this week. Support remains the weekly low at $10.35 
for now.


   Wheat trade is 5 to 12 cents higher across the three contracts at midday 
with light commercial buying continuing. Spread trade continues to firm between 
contract months and classes of wheat which remains and encouraging demand sign 
with reports of imports by European countries to make up quality deficits. The 
spring wheat harvest will likely continue to be slow, and trade will watch 
further development in the Ukraine, with the Russia pushing relief convoys into 
the Ukraine. Support is $6.18 at the 10-day moving average on the Kansas City 
Sept contract with Chicago support at the $5.41 10-day moving average, with the 
KC 20-day moving average at $6.25 the next resistance level, which trade is 
above at midday. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com. 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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